City centres left behind
Over ten years the typical home in England and Wales rose +38.7% in cash and +0.5% after inflation. The neighbourhoods that fell furthest behind their own cities are the city centres, and the reason is in what they are built of.
England and Wales, 2015 to 2025
+38.7%
in cash. +0.5% after inflation: the market as a whole only kept pace.
Median district, flats against houses
+27% vs +44%
ten-year growth in the typical flat and the typical house
Districts where flats grew less than houses
1,195 of 1,407
85% of every district with both measured
Three neighbourhoods, numbers to lift
| Neighbourhood | 2015 | 2025 | 10-year change | Its city | Gap | Flats, share of sales | Below city median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton city centre SO14 | £186,000 | £215,000 | +16% | +42% | −26 points | 65% | 38% |
| Cardiff Bay and Grangetown CF10 | £146,500 | £178,500 | +22% | +54% | −33 points | 88% | 22% |
| Bristol city centre BS1 | £245,000 | £290,000 | +18% | +55% | −36 points | 96% | 15% |
Typical sale price is the median of every completed sale that year in the postcode district. "Its city" is the whole postcode area (SO, CF, BS). Source: HM Land Registry Price Paid Data; inflation is ONS CPIH.
The pattern
Rank every postcode district in England and Wales by how far its ten-year price growth fell behind its own postcode area, and the bottom of the list is the centres of prosperous cities. Bristol city centre is in the bottom 1% of 2,141 districts on that measure, Southampton city centre in the bottom 3%, Cardiff Bay in the bottom 1%.
They have three things in common. Their housing is 65% to 96% flats. Flats have grown far less than houses almost everywhere since 2015, +27% against +44% in the median district. And where a district has enough house sales to measure, its houses kept pace with the city while its flats did not, which says the location is fine and the stock is the problem.
Southampton city centre SO14
A flat in Southampton city centre sold for a typical £177,600 in 2015 and £171,000 in 2025. That is −4% in cash over ten years, before inflation. Houses in the same district, mostly terraces around St Mary's and Newtown, went from £203,473 to £256,341, +26%. Southampton as a whole rose +42%.
The district's overall typical price is 38% below the Southampton median and −16% down in real terms on 2015. Flats were 76% of sales in 2015 and 65% in 2025, so the mix has shifted a little towards houses, which flatters the district figure rather than explaining it.
Why it is cheap. The stock is flats and flats have not grown. The district's own houses grew +26%; its flats fell.
Why people buy there. 261 sales in 2025, the centre of a city of a quarter of a million, on the mainline to London. A square metre here costs £3,170 against £4,150 across Southampton, so the discount is real per square metre too, unlike Bristol and Cardiff below.
Table
| Year | Southampton city centre | Southampton | England and Wales | Inflation index | Sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | £186,000 (100) | £245,000 (100) | £226,518 (100) | 100 | 555 |
| 2016 | £185,500 (100) | £260,000 (106) | £237,621 (105) | 101 | 468 |
| 2017 | £193,000 (104) | £280,000 (114) | £247,059 (109) | 104 | 467 |
| 2018 | £203,200 (109) | £280,000 (114) | £251,340 (111) | 106 | 450 |
| 2019 | £193,800 (104) | £295,000 (120) | £255,449 (113) | 108 | 330 |
| 2020 | £197,500 (106) | £315,000 (129) | £274,969 (121) | 109 | 327 |
| 2021 | £205,000 (110) | £327,000 (133) | £292,758 (129) | 112 | 415 |
| 2022 | £210,000 (113) | £345,000 (141) | £308,319 (136) | 121 | 381 |
| 2023 | £211,200 (114) | £330,000 (135) | £305,942 (135) | 129 | 258 |
| 2024 | £215,000 (116) | £345,000 (141) | £311,316 (137) | 133 | 231 |
| 2025 | £215,000 (116) | £347,000 (142) | £314,243 (139) | 138 | 261 |
Cardiff Bay and Grangetown CF10
This is the cleanest case in the country. CF10 tracked Cardiff almost exactly for five years: £146,500 against £149,000 in 2015, £174,000 against £182,000 in 2020. Then Cardiff went on to £230,000 and CF10 stopped at £178,500.
Inside the same postcode, terraced houses went from £178,368 to £301,000, +69%, on 25 to 38 sales a year. Flats, 88% of everything sold, went from £143,500 to £170,000, +18%. In 2022 the district recorded 547 sales at a typical £155,600, well above a normal year and at a lower price, which is what a large new-build completion looks like in the register.
Why it is cheap. 88% flats, a completion wave in 2022, and a five-year stall that began in 2020 while the rest of Cardiff rose +26%.
Why people buy there. A square metre in CF10 costs £2,800, +4% against Cardiff's £2,680: buyers pay slightly more per square metre to be in the Bay. Homes are cheaper because they are smaller, and because they are flats.
Table
| Year | Cardiff Bay and Grangetown | Cardiff | England and Wales | Inflation index | Sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | £146,500 (100) | £149,000 (100) | £226,518 (100) | 100 | 403 |
| 2016 | £156,000 (106) | £155,000 (104) | £237,621 (105) | 101 | 339 |
| 2017 | £159,000 (109) | £160,000 (107) | £247,059 (109) | 104 | 355 |
| 2018 | £165,000 (113) | £165,000 (111) | £251,340 (111) | 106 | 376 |
| 2019 | £170,000 (116) | £170,000 (114) | £255,449 (113) | 108 | 364 |
| 2020 | £174,000 (119) | £182,000 (122) | £274,969 (121) | 109 | 181 |
| 2021 | £177,800 (121) | £195,000 (131) | £292,758 (129) | 112 | 226 |
| 2022 | £155,600 (106) | £215,000 (144) | £308,319 (136) | 121 | 547 |
| 2023 | £177,800 (121) | £215,000 (144) | £305,942 (135) | 129 | 234 |
| 2024 | £178,000 (122) | £222,500 (149) | £311,316 (137) | 133 | 244 |
| 2025 | £178,500 (122) | £230,000 (154) | £314,243 (139) | 138 | 216 |
Bristol city centre BS1
Bristol city centre was more expensive than Bristol in 2015, £245,000 against £220,000, and still was in 2020, £335,000 against £293,000. It has been cheaper than the city every year since 2022. The typical BS1 sale in 2025 was £290,000; Bristol's was £340,000.
Ten-year growth is +18% against +55% for Bristol, a gap of 36 points, the widest of the three. In real terms the district is −14% on 2015. Sales were 96% flats in 2025; there are not enough house sales in BS1 to measure houses separately.
Why it is cheap. It is a flats market that peaked in 2020 at £335,000 and has come down −13% in cash since, while houses across Bristol kept rising. Year-to-year figures here move with completions, so read the trend rather than any single year.
Why people buy there. A square metre in BS1 costs £5,020, +23% against £4,090 for Bristol. That premium per square metre is the market saying the location is worth more, not less. The homes are cheaper because they are small.
Table
| Year | Bristol city centre | Bristol | England and Wales | Inflation index | Sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | £245,000 (100) | £220,000 (100) | £226,518 (100) | 100 | 446 |
| 2016 | £275,000 (112) | £242,500 (110) | £237,621 (105) | 101 | 402 |
| 2017 | £265,000 (108) | £259,000 (118) | £247,059 (109) | 104 | 521 |
| 2018 | £268,700 (110) | £266,500 (121) | £251,340 (111) | 106 | 320 |
| 2019 | £323,800 (132) | £272,000 (124) | £255,449 (113) | 108 | 290 |
| 2020 | £335,000 (137) | £293,000 (133) | £274,969 (121) | 109 | 210 |
| 2021 | £322,500 (132) | £310,000 (141) | £292,758 (129) | 112 | 321 |
| 2022 | £257,000 (105) | £333,000 (151) | £308,319 (136) | 121 | 371 |
| 2023 | £285,000 (116) | £335,000 (152) | £305,942 (135) | 129 | 174 |
| 2024 | £325,000 (133) | £337,000 (153) | £311,316 (137) | 133 | 191 |
| 2025 | £290,000 (118) | £340,000 (155) | £314,243 (139) | 138 | 205 |
Same postcode, two markets
Where a district has enough house sales to measure, its houses moved with the city and its flats did not. The location did not fall behind; one type of home did.
Table
| District | Houses 2015 | Houses 2025 | Change | House sales 2025 | Flats 2015 | Flats 2025 | Change | Flat sales 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton city centre | £203,473 | £256,341 | +26% | 91 | £177,600 | £171,000 | −4% | 169 |
| Cardiff Bay and Grangetown | £178,368 | £301,000 | +69% | 25 | £143,500 | £170,000 | +18% | 190 |
| Plymouth city centre and the Hoe | £175,205 | £246,500 | +41% | 100 | £134,500 | £158,000 | +17% | 214 |
Houses are semi-detached and terraced sales combined, with detached where present. Cardiff Bay's house figure rests on 25 to 38 sales a year and moves more than the others; its direction has been the same every year since 2019.
It is not a local story
Take every district with enough of both types to measure, 1,407 of them, and subtract ten-year house growth from ten-year flat growth. Flats grew less than houses in 1,195. The typical district saw flats rise +27% and houses +44%.
City centres sit at the far left of that chart because they are where the flats are. The reasons flats have trailed are well documented: the cladding and external-wall problems that followed 2017, which made many flats hard to mortgage or sell for years; leasehold, ground rent and rising service charges; the shift in demand towards space and gardens from 2020; and, since 2022, higher mortgage rates landing hardest on first-time buyers and landlords, who are the flat market. What the record adds is the size of the effect and where it concentrates.
The same pattern elsewhere
| Neighbourhood | 2025 typical sale | 10-year change | Its area | Gap | Flats | Below area |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plymouth city centre and the Hoe PL1 | £185,000 | +18% | +42% | −24 points | 68% | 27% |
| Liverpool city centre L3 | £172,000 | +35% | +59% | −24 points | 92% | 18% |
| Gateshead Quayside and town centre NE8 | £141,000 | +15% | +34% | −19 points | 47% | 28% |
| Watford town centre WD17 | £400,000 | +25% | +40% | −15 points | 49% | 19% |
| Brentford TW8 | £460,800 | +2% | +36% | −33 points | 79% | 11% |
| Derby West End DE1 | £165,000 | +25% | +52% | −27 points | 42% | 31% |
Gateshead is the exception that is worth a question: both its houses and its flats trailed the Newcastle area, so something other than stock is at work there.
The extreme case: prime London
Kensington Olympia is the top of the same pattern. The typical sale there was £785,000 in 2015 and £635,000 in 2025, −19% in cash and −41% after inflation. Flats, 88% of sales, fell −18%; the district's houses fell −5%. The peak was £850,000 in 2016, the year after the stamp duty reform that raised the tax on homes over about £1m and the year the 3% surcharge on second homes came in.
Table
| Year | Kensington Olympia | London W | England and Wales | Inflation index | Sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | £785,000 (100) | £670,000 (100) | £226,518 (100) | 100 | 601 |
| 2016 | £850,000 (108) | £710,000 (106) | £237,621 (105) | 101 | 515 |
| 2017 | £730,000 (93) | £760,000 (113) | £247,059 (109) | 104 | 359 |
| 2018 | £700,000 (89) | £740,000 (110) | £251,340 (111) | 106 | 348 |
| 2019 | £745,000 (95) | £700,000 (104) | £255,449 (113) | 108 | 353 |
| 2020 | £722,500 (92) | £750,000 (112) | £274,969 (121) | 109 | 322 |
| 2021 | £735,000 (94) | £739,100 (110) | £292,758 (129) | 112 | 575 |
| 2022 | £681,400 (87) | £725,000 (108) | £308,319 (136) | 121 | 427 |
| 2023 | £680,000 (87) | £765,000 (114) | £305,942 (135) | 129 | 357 |
| 2024 | £695,000 (89) | £755,000 (113) | £311,316 (137) | 133 | 429 |
| 2025 | £635,000 (81) | £728,000 (109) | £314,243 (139) | 138 | 429 |
Method
HomesIndex publishes a standing market report for every postcode area and district in England and Wales, rebuilt each month from HM Land Registry Price Paid Data, which records every completed sale since 1995. This analysis uses the same figures. A neighbourhood is a postcode district (SO14, CF10, BS1); its city is the postcode area (SO, CF, BS). The typical price is the median of that year's sales. 2026 is excluded because registrations for it are still arriving. Inflation is the ONS CPIH index, 2015 = 100. Price per square metre divides sale prices by floor areas from Energy Performance Certificates, matched by address.
Two cautions. A median moves when a large new-build scheme completes, so single years in flat-heavy districts jump; the ten-year comparison is the reliable figure. And "houses" in a city centre can rest on a few dozen sales a year; the sample sizes are in every table.
Figures for any other city or district on request, from the same record: aadi@homesindex.co.uk. The reports themselves: local market reports.
Contains HM Land Registry data © Crown copyright and database right 2026, licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.